Annotation

The article studies application of tools of the game theory for specialization of an agricultural enterprise. Determination of specialization of an agricultural enterprise is an important element of its strategic development. However, an optimal decision is always accompanied by a risk, which provokes uncertainty. Uncertainty in decision-making is a very broad concept. It is caused and demonstrates an objective impossibility to get some absolute knowledge about specific internal and external conditions of running of an economic activity, or ambiguity of parameters. Uncertainty is forced by incomplete or inappropriate information about conditions of preparation and execution of economic decisions, including those, connected with the related expenses and forecasting of results. Uncertainty in specialization of an agricultural enterprise is mainly caused by unexpected weather conditions, which significantly influence yield of agricultural crops. To choose the best possible decision under conditions of uncertainty with application of the game theory, it is necessary to follow some criteria, including the Wald criterion (maximin criterion), optimism criterion (maximax criterion), pessimism criterion (minimization of minimum profits), regret (decision theory) (risk minimization).

The work applies the game theory instrument and examines the payoff matrix by means of the criteria data at LLC “Verbiv” in Berezhany district of Ternopil region. The carried investigations supply a basis for the following conclusions. The enterprise should grow winter wheat (agreement of the made decision by the criteria of optimism, pessimism and regret), in spite of the low level of profit, secured by the crop. A maximum level of profit is secured by production of soybean. However, such production is performed with the greatest risk. Thus, winter wheat should stay the main crop for growing, while production of soybean should occupy insufficient area. As of the present day, the correlation of the area, intended for cereals and industrial crops, constitutes 69 : 31, i.e. winter wheat occupies 24 % of the cropping area, and soybean – 9 %. Such correlation should be kept in the future with a possible insufficient increase of the cropping area for soybean.