Visnyk LNAU: Architecture and Farm Building 2019 №20: 147-151
FORECASTING OF PRODUCTIVE LANDS USE UNDER MARKET CONDITIONS
О. Kostyshyn, PhD
М. Smoliarchuk, PhD
Lviv National Agrarian University
E. Zubko, Senior Lecturer
Moldova State Agrarian University
Nowadays, the land use forecasting is a central issue in development of land management schemes for different management levels. In particular, establishment of promising areas for certain categories of land is the main problem during the development of the General Scheme of Land Resources Use of Ukraine. In addition, one has determined the areas of agricultural lands at the regional level; the calculation of the efficiency of land use – on the district level. Among the indicators of the land forecast, the total volume of land with an allocation is based on the nature of land use: agricultural lands; non-agricultural lands and lands, which are not used. The forecast assumes a change in the proportions between these three types of land resources in the process of transforming one species into another one.
The forecast is based on the information of the national and regional programs.
Reliability of the forecast reflects the level of correspondence of the forecast characteristics of the object (phenomenon), their actual state at the end of the determined period, and it is established on the basis of estimation of the probability of the forecast and depends on the duration of the forecast period, complexity of the object of forecasting (it is determined by the number of factors), state of study, the perfection of the applied methods of forecasting, etc. Regional forecasts cover a large area that may belong to different zones, but it has a common geographic location, specialization in terms of production, demography, etc. (for instance, the Western region). Currently, local and regional forecasts are the most common.
The practical application of the method of mathematical forecasting (modeling) allows finding of the parameters of production functions by solving the system of normal equations. One can judge the practical value of constructing production functions in this way only after evaluation of the results, obtained on the basis of calculation of the correlation coefficients, correlation ratios, and various statistical quantities that characterize the close relation between the results and the factorial indices. In this model, one has carried out the formalization by linear equations and inequalities. The construction of the model results in a description of the target function, which is formed by the variables of all households.
land use forecasting, agricultural lands, arable, land resources, productive land
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